What if Oracle hadn't bought Sun ?

MCST made / make the russian Elbrus line of sparc chips... not sure how easy it is to buy a development board with one of these chips on it nowadays!


There was some press buzz a couple of years ago that China was going to have a big push to use Risc/V, I wonder what has happened. I know they licensed POWER, and they also made some X86 compatible chips that were only a generation or two behind amd and intel's current stuff. And then they have their own stuff, the longsoon, and the huawei stuff, and probably others I haven't heard of.
I was just reading about MCST today – I was under wrong impression that they based Elbrus on Vrlogs that I mentioned, but Elbrus 2000 arch predates open sourcing of T1/T2 for a number of years, so I guess they must have some licensing deal with Sun in the late '90s?

Here is a page with a range of current offerings, List of Russian computers based on Elbrus (E2 K) architecture processors, (Russian only, but page is simple enough that auto translate is not bad), but no prices – I found few online dealers offering desktops, but price is on request only. In their online classifieds Elbrus desktops (older models) are quite cheap.

Afaik, China based their efforts on MIPS – Loongson, and newer versions even have fast x86 and ARM binary translation, but IDK much about them.
 
this is one of those discussions I start writing in, and then delete my post instead of hit send. It's an interesting intellectual discussion but in the end it really doesn't matter "what if"...in 2025 x86 owns the business world, ARM owns the mobile/power-constrained world, and NVidia owns the AI world, IMHO.
 
this is one of those discussions I start writing in, and then delete my post instead of hit send. It's an interesting intellectual discussion but in the end it really doesn't matter "what if"...in 2025 x86 owns the business world, ARM owns the mobile/power-constrained world, and NVidia owns the AI world, IMHO.
Quote by Robert Jordan, "The Path of Daggers":
The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again.
 
The only other thing might have been ZFS, but IBM already had/has lots of their own midrange and high-end storage software and systems that do basically the same thing.
Indeed, including the publicly known jfs (sometimes called jfs2), which ships as part of AIX. And then GPFS (now known as Spectrum Scale), SanFS (previously known as StorageTank), Seastar/Squid (publicly known as Shark), and I forgot a few other nautical code names (like what was Lodestone). None of those exactly match ZFS, and importantly none are available for free.

If Sun tried going back into business with Sparc-based systems now, they would face all the same problems as before. It is extremely costly and difficult to develop, market and then maintain a non-standard CPU architecture, against a strongly entrenched market standard. IBM got nowhere with POWER, once Apple dropped it,
IBM continues to have three non-x86 architectures, and it makes billions by selling them: Power (which still exists in high-end machines, just not consumers), AS/400 (now known as I series, and running on a new processor that is closely related to Power), and the 360/370-style mainframe (now known as Z). It is perfectly possible to develop and sell CPUs, just not into the super price-conscious consumer segment. One just has to be ruthlessly competent.

And while I can say many bad things about IBM (having spent nearly two decades inside it), they are definitely competent. Unlike a company that had Scott McNealy as CEO (chief lying officer, he's the mold from which Elon Musk was made, including all the verbal self-harm), and Andy Bechtolsheim as chief architect (who famously has the strongest RDF = Reality Distortion Field in Silicon Valley: he actually believed his own nonsense, and forced everyone in Sun to also believe it).

Furthermore there have been many attempts to put ARM variants into both desktop PC's/laptops and servers, the only company that has really succeeded in doing that in my opinion has been
Today, a good fraction of all CPUs at places like Amazon/Google/Microsoft are not x86, but are "home brew", using instruction sets such as ARM, MIPS, RISC-V and so on. When I say "home brew", that usually means co-designed with outside vendors, for example Ampere.

In the consumer world, one gets a very biased and unrealistic view of the microprocessor state of the art. That's because consumer devices (cell phones, small computers, video cards for gamers) are optimized for cost and things like battery life, not for reliability, compute power, IO, or good integration into large systems. In particular, the consumer CPU front was so long dominated by Intel (and its licensee AMD) that the x86 architecture has become synonymous with consumer computers. Our (now sadly deceased) neighbor Nick had a good joke about this. Nick was a famous CPU architect, and when giving the humorous after-dinner-and-drinks talk at the Microprocessor forum, he once needled Andy Grove, who had claimed that he didn't interview CPU architecture job candidates, because he himself didn't understand architecture. The punchline is something like "and it shows".
 
I would like to have seen where Sun would take their SRSS / SunRay / X11 system. Yes, it wasn't perfect but what I see currently used today in enterprise deployments such as the NHS and parts of the MoD ain't better more than a decade later.
 
I would like to have seen where Sun would take their SRSS / SunRay / X11 system. Yes, it wasn't perfect but what I see currently used today in enterprise deployments such as the NHS and parts of the MoD ain't better more than a decade later.
I'm even more sorry that Sun give up on their NeWS - PostScript Display tech which was later resurrected (but not related to Sun tech) in the NeXT Display PostScript and then evolved into Quartz 2D in OS X. (BTW, DEC also licensed Display PostScript in '88 for DECWindows, and Sun followed with OpenWindows in '93)
 
When I said ibm "got nowhere" with power, I was really thinking of their failed attempt to get taiwan to make power PC's, the common hardware reference platform, in other words to move that architecture into the mass market in direct competition with x86, which they attempted in the '90s. Sure they still make money from p, i and especially z, and it shows that if your business is big enough, you can sustain developing your own cpu architecture. But those are all ibm-owned markets, and all the major growth for years now is in the data centers/hyperscalers which are predominantly X86. Yes aws and ms have their own chips like AI accelerators, but x86 is the core. Software compatibility is the key factor, as it always was.
 
When I said ibm "got nowhere" with power, I was really thinking of their failed attempt to get taiwan to make power PC's, the common hardware reference platform, in other words to move that architecture into the mass market in direct competition with x86, which they attempted in the '90s. Sure they still make money from p, i and especially z, and it shows that if your business is big enough, you can sustain developing your own cpu architecture. But those are all ibm-owned markets, and all the major growth for years now is in the data centers/hyperscalers which are predominantly X86. Yes aws and ms have their own chips like AI accelerators, but x86 is the core. Software compatibility is the key factor, as it always was.
Well, that's more Job's fault when he snuffed all Mac clones (and bought out Power Computing) before G3 and OS 8. Since, Apple was singe consumer that was buying PowerPC CPUs from Motorola, and soon because of laptops they switched to Intel - there was no one left but IBM with their own in-house tech.
 
I think it was an attempt to establish a new industry standard architecture based around POWER, not just for Apple, although Apple was the main (only?) large non-ibm adopter. There were three versions, Prep, Chrp and most recently PAPR which was aimed at linux systems. Of course none of them are binary compatible with x86, which is what the wider industry has continued to use as the mainstream (outside of proprietary systems like ibm Z).

ARM has the same problem in trying to get penetration into PC's and servers, they have had to provide x86 emulation layers to get software compatibility to make their offerings attractive; apple being the exception because their stuff is another proprietary ecosystem. Well, I guess Apple do have the mixed binaries that will run on both x86 and M-series macs.


Still it sounds like Ralphbsz knows more about this stuff than I do! :) Perhaps with Intel waning in recent years there will be more opportunities for other architectures to take some business away from x86.
 
I think it was an attempt to establish a new industry standard architecture based around POWER, not just for Apple, although Apple was the main (only?) large non-ibm adopter. There were three versions, Prep, Chrp and most recently PAPR which was aimed at linux systems. Of course none of them are binary compatible with x86, which is what the wider industry has continued to use as the mainstream (outside of proprietary systems like ibm Z).


Still it sounds like Ralph knows more about this stuff than I do! :) Perhaps with Intel waning in recent years there will be more opportunities for other architectures to take some business away from x86.
Yeah, true, nice on paper, but don't forget that AIM alliance also had OpenDoc, which was also killed by Jobs when he returned to Apple.
 
When I said ibm "got nowhere" with power, I was really thinking of their failed attempt to get taiwan to make power PC's, the common hardware reference platform, in other words to move that architecture into the mass market in direct competition with x86, which they attempted in the '90s.
Indeed. That included a mass-market Unix based OS and stuff like that. It was a direct follow-on to all the "big" computer companies getting into the personal computer market, famously starting with IBM's PC (sic). In the case of IBM, it took them about 20 years to figure out that given their DNA and culture, they were not capable of competing in the consumer computer market. Other companies that were less rich than IBM tried entering that market (for example Digital), and it caused them to die by bleeding investments away from their successful and profitable business and technical computer products. Yet others (HP) eventually figured out how to succeed in the personal computer market (partly by wiping out their biggest competitor when they killed the totally mismanaged Compaq), and spun out their enterprise computing (including HPC) into a separate and much smaller company.

But those are all ibm-owned markets, and all the major growth for years now is in the data centers/hyperscalers which are predominantly X86. Yes aws and ms have their own chips like AI accelerators, but x86 is the core. Software compatibility is the key factor, as it always was.
First, while the major growth is indeed in hyperscalers, which are mostly providers of cloud services, there is still a lot of on-prem and private cloud computing. A lot of large computer users are government agencies (not just the secretive ones, but also for example weather forecasting and administrative things, such as payroll for millions of government employees), those typically don't use the public cloud much. Second, certain industries that are highly regulated (health, finance) have a hard time moving to the hyperscalers, and have the size and scale to remain independent.

And a lot of the hyperscaler CPU usage is moving away from x86. Not just AI accelerators, but also CPUs. And a lot of CPU power today sits in pieces of hardware such as network switches, network cards, and HBAs, where the FAANG (and many others) deploy their own hardware. Software compatibility is actually easy. As an example, set up a Raspberry Pi with Debian Linux, and set up a traditional x86 desktop with the same Debian version next to it. You will probably not notice any difference (other than performance), and software will work the same. Just don't copy a compiled executable from one machine to the other (unless it's Java). With packaging systems such as Docker and scheduling systems such as Kubernetes, it is relatively easy to use a clustered computer system where different CPUs have different instruction sets.
 
Interesting :-) Yes I hadn't considered the options opened up by containerisation. Perhaps that makes binary compatibility less of a determinant than in the past.

And I guess in datacenters, everyone is looking at compute work per watt, and trying to optimise power consumption to minimise costs.
 
Just don't copy a compiled executable from one machine to the other
That is the capability that always used to be critical, of course, at least in the past. Even today, if you take FreeBSD as an example, and you want to install and run compiled binary packages, then cpu binary compatibility is essential. And I would imagine backwards software compatibility must be a critical selling feature for ibm Z. So it's interesting that you say binary software compatibility is becoming less important (or perhaps I've misunderstood what you've said). That would certainly potentially open up opportunities for non-x86 architectures.
 
So I guess the combination of containers and VM's means you can run packages compiled for one instruction set on a different architecture CPU. It sounds like that would hurt Intel. But Intel seems to be particularly good at destroying what was their own perfectly good business anyway over the last several years. Or maybe they just haven't kept up with the competition, principally TSMC (and Apple who stand behind TSMC).

Although Intel do still make some nice products, the N100 I'm running in my mini pc is a very nice chip. I've measured the power consumption, the whole machine only consumes about 10W, which is truly remarkable when compared to previous generations of PC hardware... and you can attach three 4K monitors, and it has hardware encryption acceleration... very nice chip to make a little desktop with. In performance terms, it will compile something like the linux kernel faster than my 10 year old Xeon, which is pretty good. The value proposition is outstanding when you consider what a desktop PC used to cost.

Whether intel makes any money selling N100's is a whole other question, the whole mini-PC only cost around 160 dollars, and that is with 16GB ram and a 512 GB ssd. In fact I wondered if that price is really just China doing market dumping to destroy the western competition. You would have to sell a hell of a lot of N100's to recover your development cost, let alone get any significant ROI, but perhaps they do. I can understand why ibm got out of that market segment and focused on servers, for sure. Although I always thought giving up on the thinkpad line was a mistake because it brought such great brand recognition globally, and Lenovo have gone on to make a very successful business from it. Apple won big from that too, it's macbooks you see much of the time in corporate boardrooms nowadays :'‑(. Oh well, this is just chewing over history.

It will be interesting to see if any of the current crop of ARM variants get any significant penetration into the x86 desktop, following on from Apple's success with the M1 series.

Still, this isn't much to do with Sun. I think as much as anything else, linux on X86 killed Sun. First it killed the Unix workstation market, for people who wanted a unix desktop. I remember back around 1995 running linux on an early thinkpad and realising it was as good or better than the Sun 3 workstation I had been using a few years before. It's very hard to compete with 'free'. And second it largely killed the non-x86 unix server market, at least the mass market, only the big boys with deep pockets like IBM with AIX still continue in that market. If Sun was re-launched now and tried to sell Sparc systems again, they would face all the same kinds of problems.
 
It will be interesting to see if any of the current crop ARM variants get any significant penetration into the x86 desktop, following on from Apple's success with the M1 series.
There are typically two different workloads. High demand for single thread performance and high demand for multi threaded performance.
What intel/amd sell is high in single thread performance, this is what sells them. When you need a lot of threads which don't necessarily have the high IPS demand, you can go for CPUs with multiple threads. There are RISC-V chips with what? 64 cores? More? When you are running things like a web server you may be better off with those. I would suggest that, once the single core performance of such chips reaches a certain level (say, it can run DOOM or whatnot), the demand for faster core speed will level off and you will see more threads. Some software can benefit from multi core, some can't. Horses for courses. I for one would like to see and try a 128 core RISC-V, see how it compiles world or ports.
 
Yes, all good points, when talking about servers. And VM's and containers are the software enablers that let you run existing software on ARM or risc-v.

I was thinking more of things like the MS effort with their ARM cpu surface, or the current crop of snapdragon X cpu laptops. ARM licencees have been trying for years to get into consumer desktops, Apple had the real breakthrough with the M1 and its descendents, but the MS desktop is still an open question.
 
I would suggest that, once the single core performance of such chips reaches a certain level (say, it can run DOOM or whatnot), the demand for faster core speed will level off and you will see more threads
Probably, however, 'traditional CISC' amd64 (being less and less CISC under the hood) has been in steady decline where it concerns its projected increase as posed by Moore's law. Sophie Wilson, of Acorn and ARM fame, has some relevant information, for example 2020 Wheeler Lecture: The Future of Microprocessors (ca. 1 hr 42 min.); or a shorter version: The Future of Microprocessors • Sophie Wilson • GOTO 2024 (ca. 57 min).
 
MLP was also a one trick pony.

Lighthouse acquired by Sun. Sun acquired by Oracle. There was never any chance of MLP becoming CEO of Oracle and he seems to have disappeared into obscurity, possibly running a company that has a health smartphone app.
 
The latest wildcard in this is whether China will succeed in flooding the market with low cost competitive risc-V chips. It reminds me a bit of the japanese efforts in the 90s to establish their own industry standard cpu architectures (who remembers Japan's '5th generation' computing project?), but perhaps china has overwhelming market dominance now. Well, I guess the 'cpu wars' will continue, the outcome, as always, remains to be seen! 😁

 
Probably, however, 'traditional CISC' amd64 (being less and less CISC under the hood) has been in steady decline where it concerns its projected increase as posed by Moore's law. Sophie Wilson, of Acorn and ARM fame, has some relevant information, for example 2020 Wheeler Lecture: The Future of Microprocessors (ca. 1 hr 42 min.); or a shorter version: The Future of Microprocessors • Sophie Wilson • GOTO 2024 (ca. 57 min).
Yes I've seen some sophie wilson talks in the past, very good.
 
Motorola 6800 vs Intel x86, Sparc vs Intel vs AMD vs whomever. The space has always been about competing tech.The "winner" is not always the best, but often the "best funded"
As Crivens points out above, "what if...". Heck look at the original Mac: specs were below a flip phone, but look at what it could do.

LOL -Just to be clear: That's Motorola 68000 -- I had one and also a 68010 in another box.

My bad, you guys already caught that ! :cool:
 
LOL -Just to be clear: That's Motorola 68000 -- I had one and also a 68010 in another box.

My bad, you guys already caught that ! :cool:
Well thanks for everyone that caught that, but there was a 6800: 8 bit cpu. It that would have been an unfair comparison to the 32 bit cpus. :)
 
Well thanks for everyone that caught that, but there was a 6800: 8 bit cpu. It that would have been an unfair comparison to the 32 bit cpus. :)
Well, 68K had 32-bit instruction set, with 32-bit registers but 16-bit internal data bus and 16-bit ALU. That’s where Atari ST got its name from - Sixteen/Thirty-two. So, it’s still not fair to compare 68000 with full 32-bit CPUs 😁
 
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