Halloween message

This guy disappointed me cca month ago.
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Economy was doomed before AI.
Because money creation is wrong/scam and it compounded over the decades.

Ai is useful technology. Maybe even worth the trillions. But the companies currently running it are most likely not. Thus far I agree with him.
But it doesn't matter - the fundamentals are wrong; funny money markets make no sense, between circular financing and subsidizing/manipulating commodity markets by govs. Huge debts, even bigger borrowing - inflation manifested in housing market.

Another Great Reset incoming. CBDC aka programable money, will be offered(ordered) as solution. Mark my words.
I already keep hearing about Cyber Pandemic, to finally censor and de-anonymize Internet.
It will be like last time when Trump was ending. Everyone is making their moves. Left rioting in Europe. Coup d'etat in Poland. Trouble is on the horizon. Hold tight.

Will FreeBSD survive is bigger question. Sony in shambles. Once Pfsense takes a hit, it is over.
 
In any normal market, I think he is correct about the over-valuations. However, one factor that he didn't mention, is that the worlds two largest economies are in direct competition for global AI dominance. AI itself is seen as a technology that has strategic importance. That may tip the scales in favour of this situation continuing for some time. It's not just 'investors' confidence supporting those valuations, but in some respects, the strategic goals of major countries; neither can afford to lose this race. AI is somewhat unique in this respect, as compared to, say, internet pet shops in the dot-com boom.

OTOH, as he pointed out, there have been some large stock price falls just this week. According to yahoo finance, Alphabet lost half a trillion dollars on thursday https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-just-lost-500-billion-203300362.html , which sounds like a lot of money to me, and several others have also lost large amounts. That doesn't sound like stability. Perhaps the recent rise in interest rates he alluded to will bring about a correction. We shall have to wait and see what happens.
 
As for FreeBSD, let's keep our fingers crossed. I try to support Slackware too, since I think Pat Volkerding and others have done a good job there for many years, like FreeBSD. It will be a great pity if either of those two go under. I think FreeBSD is just too valuable a part of the ecosystem, for it to go under completely; someone will step in if it appears to be at risk. Having another fully working, proven, industrial grade operating system available, that specifically has it's own kernel that is not some version of the penguin, and that runs on commodity hardware, is a very valuable asset, imho. There aren't many such things in the world. It's not like it's going to cost a large amount of money to keep freebsd going, anyway. Elon (or any of several others) could probably fund freebsd for years, with less cash than he drops down the back of the sofa each day. So I think rumours of Beastie's demise are somewhat exaggerated.
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blackbird9 said:
In any normal market, I think he is correct about the over-valuations. However, one factor that he didn't mention, is that the worlds two largest economies are in direct competition for global AI dominance. AI itself is seen as a technology that has strategic importance. That may tip the scales in favour of this situation continuing for some time. It's not just 'investors' confidence supporting those valuations, but in some respects, the strategic goals of major countries; neither can afford to lose this race. AI is somewhat unique in this respect, as compared to, say, internet pet shops in the dot-com boom.

OTOH, as he pointed out, there have been some large stock price falls just this week. According to yahoo finance, Alphabet lost half a trillion dollars on thursday https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-just-lost-500-billion-203300362.html , which sounds like a lot of money to me, and several others have also lost large amounts. That doesn't sound like stability. Perhaps the recent rise in interest rates he alluded to will bring about a correction. We shall have to wait and see what happens.
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You are quite (very) right.
Corrections will happen.
Alphabet is in good position to continue it's business dominance, tho. It sells ads. Everyone uses google and gmail and android. Gemini is not on par but it is fine for most people - they will continue to use it, instead of subscription to frontier models...and be lucrative ad target.

What will happen? Interest rates will go down and/or ton of money will be printed, as always. You can be sure inflation is gonna to get much worse. CBDC will be "proposed" as solution. That is the ultimate control tool, power move. And power is what everyone is after.
Will it work for economy/prosperity? No.
 
blackbird9 said:
As for FreeBSD, let's keep our fingers crossed. I try to support Slackware too, since I think Pat Volkerding and others have done a good job there for many years, like FreeBSD. It will be a great pity if either of those two go under. I think FreeBSD is just too valuable a part of the ecosystem, for it to go under completely; someone will step in if it appears to be at risk. Having another fully working, proven, industrial grade operating system available, that specifically has it's own kernel that is not some version of the penguin, and that runs on commodity hardware, is a very valuable asset, imho. There aren't many such things in the world. It's not like it's going to cost a large amount of money to keep freebsd going, anyway. Elon (or any of several others) could probably fund freebsd for years, with less cash than he drops down the back of the sofa each day. So I think rumours of Beastie's demise are somewhat exaggerated.
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I am big believer in microkernels.
sel4 is promising on paper. Jordan Hubbard (of FreeBSD) is working with it.
github.com

GitHub - jordanhubbard/agentos: An operating system designed from the core up for agents and agentic security requirements. Built on seL4 microkernel with capability-based security and agent-native vibe-coding.

An operating system designed from the core up for agents and agentic security requirements. Built on seL4 microkernel with capability-based security and agent-native vibe-coding. - jordanhubbard/ag...
github.com github.com

So it gives me hope for FreeBSD even if as VM on top of sel4.

Microkernels will sweep away Linux from consumer HW, I think. Google Fuchsia was meant to do that. One kernel, drivers in userspace = easy compatibility. Maybe that is why google pulled from it.
On servers FreeBSD could be a king...when Docker phases out. And it probably will as security nightmare. Docker or Kubernetes are popular because dependency hell.
FreeBSD virtualization has problem with passthrough. It is more of a (security) feature, I imagine.

My probably naive hope is - some new framework for reverse engineering drivers for BSD will erase the driver/SW compatibility gap.

If there was breakthrough in AMD and nVidia (CUDA and ROCm) and it worked 10% better on FreeBSD, we would see huge uptick in use. Headless Ai inference machine, with Hermes on side running in jail with zfs features (even omarchy DHH envies that) would "sell" like crazy. Thanks to licence you can even stick your logo on it or whatever.
 
DanielBowman said:
I am big believer in microkernels.
sel4 is promising on paper. Jordan Hubbard (of FreeBSD) is working with it.
github.com

GitHub - jordanhubbard/agentos: An operating system designed from the core up for agents and agentic security requirements. Built on seL4 microkernel with capability-based security and agent-native vibe-coding.

An operating system designed from the core up for agents and agentic security requirements. Built on seL4 microkernel with capability-based security and agent-native vibe-coding. - jordanhubbard/ag...
github.com github.com
...
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Yeah. There's a big difference between 'promising on paper' and proven industrial grade, that has hundreds (or thousands?) of thousands of servers and network routers running it worldwide. Microkernels have been coming for a long time, like fusion and electric cars. Mach came out in the mid-80's. I seem to remember some discussion between Torvalds and Tanenbaum, right back at the start of the penguin era. Let's wait and see what happens.
 
blackbird9 said:
Yeah. There's a big difference between 'promising on paper' and proven industrial grade, that has tens (hundreds?) of thousands of servers and network routers running it worldwide. Microkernels have been coming for a long time, like fusion and electric cars. I seem to remember some discussion between Torvalds and Tanenbaum, right back at the start of the penguin. Let's wait and see what happens.
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sel4 won a few DARPA events, practical ones. They have it working alright in the niche market of super secret and super reliable systems.

Minix is in every Intel processor - so it is even more spread than Linux after all.

Microkernel as bad concept is (very) old news - "Liedtke’s L3 and especially L4 (starting ~1993) showed that the slowdown was largely an implementation problem (IPC), not a fundamental architectural one."

Blackberry QNX is in every car...and not just as infotainment.

GNU Hurd is that old news Mach stuff - probably dead end.
 
Yes old news - theoretically. But it hasn't hit prime time, has it. Minix running on the ME is hardly a very strong example, they just wanted a free real mode o/s they could bung on an embedded 386 in the ICH, so they didn't have to pay license fees. Still, maybe microkernel is evolving to the point where they are getting it to work, and perhaps hardware is becoming good enough to run it. Sel4 does look quite interesting https://sel4.systems/ . I expect it's picking up some defence and security contracts in the current environment, if it's any good.
 
blackbird9 said:
Maybe it's evolving to the point where they are getting it to work, and perhaps hardware is becoming good enough to run it. Sel4 does look interesting.
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There is like 5% performance cost. But you get HUGE stability while RealTime.
And it definitely works, see QNX.

Monolithic kernels are convenient - mature and the tech disadvantages are advantages to the company once you capture the market. HW (driver) makers have to count you in if they want to use your OS. Which they will because of app ecosystem.
 
Yes I know qnx, I used it for a while back in late 80s on some embedded work, it was from canada I think. It's good to know they are still around in some form. They had a gui toolkit called photon, IIRC. I expect the modern version of it has changed quite a lot now. I've got an ancient generic chinese mp3 player from the early 2000's that runs qnx, probably pirated, I discovered when I got into it. Again, it's a specialised thing for particular embedded niches, like vxworks, nucleus, etc.
 
blackbird9 said:
Yes I know qnx, I used it for a while back in late 80s on some embedded work, it was from canada I think. It's good to know they are still around in some form. They had a gui toolkit called photon, from memory. I expect the modern version of it has changed quite a lot now. Again, it's a specialised thing for particular embedded niches, like vxworks, nucleus, etc.
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They are the Blackberry and run in almost every car (android automotive takes a slice).
 
Well my cars definitely running some version of linux, I know because someone put up a video where they hacked into it and got a bash prompt up on the infotainment screen 😂 . I don't know what the ECU runs, something proprietary, I expect, or some commercial RTOS. I suppose they might have something like qnx or vxworks running in the ecu, but I don't know automotive.
 
blackbird9 said:
Well my cars definitely running some version of linux, I know because someone put up a video where they hacked into it and got a shell prompt up on the infotainment screen 😂 . I don't know what the ECU runs, something proprietary, I expect, or some commercial RTOS. I suppose they might have something like qnx running in the ecu, but I don't know automotive.
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You have bigger worries. Your driving wheel is on the wrong side!
 
DanielBowman said:
You have bigger worries. Your driving wheel is on the wrong side!
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Having said that....your controls are literally on the right side :)
Your driving is not...unless you need to dismount on to the pavement and to equip a whip, sword or gun in your right hand while riding.
But since we have paved roads and shooting while driving is not common occurrence (you have buddies for that), driving on the right side is OK.
 
DanielBowman said:
Any backdoors we should know about?
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It is our policy never to admit or deny anything we might have or have not done.

Dude, it's an embedded RTOS. It is running your airbags, your antilock brakes, the gearbox and whatnot. It is being tested and reviewed nine ways to Sunday, anything smelly should have been fixed by now.
 
Crivens said:
It is our policy never to admit or deny anything we might have or have not done.

Dude, it's an embedded RTOS. It is running your airbags, your antilock brakes, the gearbox and whatnot. It is being tested and reviewed nine ways to Sunday, anything smelly should have been fixed by now.
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Sure, Jen ;)
Screenshot_2026-11-01_22-30-45.png
 
Intel (INTC) fell about 23% in after-hours trading Thursday. Its third-quarter results showed an extraordinary split between its PC and data-center businesses:

Intel businessQ3 revenueYear-over-year change
Client Computing and Physical AI$8.1 billion−5%
Data Center and AI$7.3 billion+78%
 
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